Suck for Luck SweepstakesOctober 12, 2011


by: Jon Reynolds

I don’t really think that it is a secret anymore that, barring something horrific, that Andrew Luck will be the #1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. I think the interesting part is who will get the pleasure of having that #1 pick? Or maybe, who wants it bad enough to lose for it?

Luck is from Houston. His old man, Oliver Luck, is the current AD at West Virginia and played 4 years in the NFL for the Houston Oilers. Somehow Luck matriculated from the Texas football hotbed to Palo Alto, California. Stanford’s most famous athlete alumni are probably John Elway and Tiger Woods and everyone who has a draft-day opinion is certain that Luck will be added to that list in the not so distant future.

Luck has the measurables. He is 6-4 and 235 lbs. He can make all the throws. I don’t know if his arm is in Elway’s league but it is definitely upper tier. He is a natural born leader. The guy learned from a father who played QB in the NFL and was named the starting QB for Stanford as a redshirt Freshman in 2009. His stats don’t blow your mind in this pass-happy age that we live in. I mean he hasn’t thrown up any 5,000 yard 50 TD seasons or anything like that. However, he does something very well that I love. He protects the football. Only 12 total INTs in his first 2 seasons and just 4 so far this season.

I don’t think it is enough to just say he has the arm strength or the pedigree or the wins under pressure that will make him an all time great. There have been several players with cannons for arms. You can just GoogleMarinovich or Leaf to see how far a powerful arm will take you on its own. There have been tons of guys who put up ridiculous stats in college and not amount to anything in the NFL. Look at any QB that graduated from Texas Tech under Mike Leach or from Hawaii under June Jones. I don’t think you will see B.J. Symons, Cliff Kingsbury, or Timmy Chang on any NFL rosters. So it isn’t just physical tools or stats, then what makes everyone think that Andrew Luck is as can’t miss as it gets? I think it is as simple as “hey the guy goes to Stanford!”. I mean, yeah, it’s that easy. He is smart. He stayed in school to get his degree. He will probably smoke the wonderlic, which trust me is more important than the 40.

Potential suitors? I think right now it is a pretty tight race. Indianapolis is 0-5 and looks completely miserable without Peyton Manning running the show. Miami is 0-4 and seems to be ready to move on from the Chad Henne era. Plus Henne is out for the year with a shoulder injury and is in a contract year. I don’t see why the Dolphins would waste another year on keeping him around. St. Louis is 0-4 but they have their QB of the future in Sam Bradford so that all but eliminates the Rams. Denver is intriguing. They are 1-4, but just announced that they will be entering the Tim Tebow phase of their franchise for the foreseeable future. Elway is GM of the team and a Stanford grad. Josh Daniels set Elway up for disaster when he drafted Tebow. Well now, Daniels is OC in St. Louis so not too sure what will happen if Tebow flounders and Denver has the ability to take Luck at #1 overall.

I really like the idea of Luck going to Indy and learning behind Manning for 2 or 3 seasons, much like Aaron Rodgers did with ol’ number 4. I think that turned out pretty well. I guess we will have to wait and see which team is the biggest steaming pile of losses by the end of the season.

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